Let's begin with a look at the polls. McCain had a significant lead over Obama from the start. In late February, McCain lead with around 52-53%, and Obama trailed with a low 36%. Through the Spring and Summer, McCain kept up his lead of double digits. When McCain's support in the polls dipped, so did Obama's. Currently, Pollster.com shows McCain with 51.4% and Obama with 38.9%.
McCain's strong lead is no surprise in his home state, of which he has been a senator since 1986. Even if McCain were not from Arizona, he would still win the state this election. In the past four presidential election, expect 1996, Arizona's electoral votes have gone to the Republican candidate. It is safe to say, and his has been for months, that Arizona will go to McCain in November. And the state's ranch/south-western population has a trend of supporting moderate candidates. Although McCain has shifted fare more to the right during his presidential campaign, his reputation as a maverick still hangs on.
Obama won't win Arizona, but the state legislature is likely to turn blue this cycle. All eight congressional districts, 22 of 30 State Senate contested seats, and all 30 State Representative seats are open for election this cycle, according to the Arizona Secretary of State.
"We are still going full steam ahead," says Don Biven, chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party.
Obama, as top of the democratic ticket, is running a 50-state campaign not only for himself but for Democtrats in state and national legislatures. Democrats in Arizona with support from independent organizations such as Victory 2008 are pouring money into Arizona to secure seats in the Arizona State Legislature.
The suspense of which candidate will take Arizona may have passed a long time ago, but the Republican dominance over the state's offices is still tentative.
Friday, October 24, 2008
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