As predicted, Arizona went overwhelmingly to McCain with over one million votes to give him 54 percent. Obama pulled 45 percent with 870,883 votes. Of the counties that Obama won, he won them with a large margin:
Coconino county: Obama, 57 percent. McCain, 41 percent.
Apache county: Obama, 63 percent. McCain, 34 percent.
Pima county: Obama, 52 percent, McCain, 46 percent. (Tuscon is in Pima county)
Santa Cruz county: Obama, 65 percent. McCain, 34 percent.
The same pattern occured in counties that went to McCain:
Graham county: McCain, 70 percent. Obama, 29 percent.
Mohave county: McCain, 65 percent. Obama, 33 percent.
Maricopa county: McCain, 55 percent. Obama, 44 percent. (Phoenix is in Maricopa county)
As other states had record turnout in both early and election-day voting, Arizona's numbers fell short of the expected record. The Arizona Secretary of State estimated that 64 percent of the state's three million registered voters actually cast their ballots. In 2004 77 percent of registered voters made it to the polls. The relatively low voter turn out (in comparison to the rest of the country) in Arizona could be the reason why McCain swept the state.
More than 200,000 provisional ballots have yet to be counted, but these would not be enough to swing the state for Obama.
So why did McCain take Arizona? First of all, McCain is a veteran of the Senate. Arizonans have elected him cycle after cycle. Secondly, Arizonans lean Republican and have traditinally been a culture of independent, ranching westerners. They see themselves in McCain and support him for it. Lastly, and perhaps most importantly, McCain hails from Arizona and the right-leaning culture of the state would not abandon their son. Even though McCain ran a scattered campaign of day-to-day tactics, Arizonans responded to him as though he were a member of their families, which essentially he is.
Arizona and California both put gay marriage on the ballots this year and both states voted to amend their constitutions to ban same-sex marriage, or rather they defined marriage as only between a man and a woman.
On the same ballot, Arizonans voted for another amendment to the state constitution which probits state institutions from discriminating based upon sex, gender, age, race, color or ethnicity when hiring employees. The amendment did not include any non-discrimination based on sexuality or sexual preference.
McCain has returned to his home to finish the rest of his term. There is the chance that he can return to the Senate and rise again as a leader in the Republican party as John Edwards did, but there is a greater chance that the tattered and defeated Republican party will turn on him as a scapegoat.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Sunday, November 2, 2008
And then there was one
The long-awaited day is almost here. After over a year of campaigning, we can finally put this old dog to rest in just one day.
Arizona will most likely go to McCain on Tuesday, but each candidate is not taking any risks.
Although McCain is up in the polls by seven percent, Obama's has achieved small gains each day.
The national Democratic campaign has not let go of Arizona as is evident in several recent and striking events. First, the Obama campaign launched the new "Something" ad state-wide.
Second, to get those lower ballot seats and to turn Arizona from a leaning-McCain state to swing state, DNC Chairman Howard Dean will begin a GOTV campaign in Arizona tomorrow. This is not the first time Dean has ventured into Republican territory. Last May he made a visit to Arizona to rally volunteers and target Democrat-leaning citizens.
Here are the rally details for tomorrow:
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 3
PIMA COUNTY GET OUT THE VOTE RALLY
Pima County Coordinated Campaign Office, Outdoor Parking Lot
4639 E 1st Street
Tucson, AZ
Event Time: 12:00 PM Local Time
The McCain campaign continues to hold rallies in Arizona to keep up morale and make sure that each and every supporter votes. This past Saturday, November 1, Senator Kyl held a rally for McCain and laid out a four-step plan for McCain to gain his desperately needed four points in the poles "one point Saturday, one point Sunday, one point Monday and one point Tuesday." Realistic? Not really, considering how many people have already made their choice through early voting and early voting has proven to favor Obama.
Popular, local newspapers provide an even spread of predicting his defeat and also building him up in last attempt to persuade readers. The Arizona Republic endorsed McCain again today along with Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick and Republican Trent Franks for Congress.
With just one day until the polls close, Arizona will still go to McCain but perhaps at a smaller margin than would have been if the election were held last week.
Arizona will most likely go to McCain on Tuesday, but each candidate is not taking any risks.
Although McCain is up in the polls by seven percent, Obama's has achieved small gains each day.
The national Democratic campaign has not let go of Arizona as is evident in several recent and striking events. First, the Obama campaign launched the new "Something" ad state-wide.
Second, to get those lower ballot seats and to turn Arizona from a leaning-McCain state to swing state, DNC Chairman Howard Dean will begin a GOTV campaign in Arizona tomorrow. This is not the first time Dean has ventured into Republican territory. Last May he made a visit to Arizona to rally volunteers and target Democrat-leaning citizens.
Here are the rally details for tomorrow:
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 3
PIMA COUNTY GET OUT THE VOTE RALLY
Pima County Coordinated Campaign Office, Outdoor Parking Lot
4639 E 1st Street
Tucson, AZ
Event Time: 12:00 PM Local Time
The McCain campaign continues to hold rallies in Arizona to keep up morale and make sure that each and every supporter votes. This past Saturday, November 1, Senator Kyl held a rally for McCain and laid out a four-step plan for McCain to gain his desperately needed four points in the poles "one point Saturday, one point Sunday, one point Monday and one point Tuesday." Realistic? Not really, considering how many people have already made their choice through early voting and early voting has proven to favor Obama.
Popular, local newspapers provide an even spread of predicting his defeat and also building him up in last attempt to persuade readers. The Arizona Republic endorsed McCain again today along with Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick and Republican Trent Franks for Congress.
With just one day until the polls close, Arizona will still go to McCain but perhaps at a smaller margin than would have been if the election were held last week.
Friday, October 24, 2008
10 days to election day
Let's begin with a look at the polls. McCain had a significant lead over Obama from the start. In late February, McCain lead with around 52-53%, and Obama trailed with a low 36%. Through the Spring and Summer, McCain kept up his lead of double digits. When McCain's support in the polls dipped, so did Obama's. Currently, Pollster.com shows McCain with 51.4% and Obama with 38.9%.
McCain's strong lead is no surprise in his home state, of which he has been a senator since 1986. Even if McCain were not from Arizona, he would still win the state this election. In the past four presidential election, expect 1996, Arizona's electoral votes have gone to the Republican candidate. It is safe to say, and his has been for months, that Arizona will go to McCain in November. And the state's ranch/south-western population has a trend of supporting moderate candidates. Although McCain has shifted fare more to the right during his presidential campaign, his reputation as a maverick still hangs on.
Obama won't win Arizona, but the state legislature is likely to turn blue this cycle. All eight congressional districts, 22 of 30 State Senate contested seats, and all 30 State Representative seats are open for election this cycle, according to the Arizona Secretary of State.
"We are still going full steam ahead," says Don Biven, chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party.
Obama, as top of the democratic ticket, is running a 50-state campaign not only for himself but for Democtrats in state and national legislatures. Democrats in Arizona with support from independent organizations such as Victory 2008 are pouring money into Arizona to secure seats in the Arizona State Legislature.
The suspense of which candidate will take Arizona may have passed a long time ago, but the Republican dominance over the state's offices is still tentative.
McCain's strong lead is no surprise in his home state, of which he has been a senator since 1986. Even if McCain were not from Arizona, he would still win the state this election. In the past four presidential election, expect 1996, Arizona's electoral votes have gone to the Republican candidate. It is safe to say, and his has been for months, that Arizona will go to McCain in November. And the state's ranch/south-western population has a trend of supporting moderate candidates. Although McCain has shifted fare more to the right during his presidential campaign, his reputation as a maverick still hangs on.
Obama won't win Arizona, but the state legislature is likely to turn blue this cycle. All eight congressional districts, 22 of 30 State Senate contested seats, and all 30 State Representative seats are open for election this cycle, according to the Arizona Secretary of State.
"We are still going full steam ahead," says Don Biven, chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party.
Obama, as top of the democratic ticket, is running a 50-state campaign not only for himself but for Democtrats in state and national legislatures. Democrats in Arizona with support from independent organizations such as Victory 2008 are pouring money into Arizona to secure seats in the Arizona State Legislature.
The suspense of which candidate will take Arizona may have passed a long time ago, but the Republican dominance over the state's offices is still tentative.
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Obama and McCain silent on same-sex marriage issue
Amendments to ban same-sex marriages is on the ballot in California, Florida and Arizona this fall. However, McCain and Obama have let this issue slip from the main topics of their campaigns.
Arizona collectively voted against this ban in 2006. The California Supreme Court struck down the ban in May this year, legalizing gay marriage across the state. The debate has officially entered Florida for the first time. All states have the ban on the November ballot, along with the presidential candidates.
Obama opposes same-sex marriage but also opposes a constitutional ban on these unions, while supporting civil-unions. McCain and his party platform stand firm in supporting marriages between only a man and a woman. He voted for the Defense of Marriage Act, but against a constitutional amendment - stating that states have the right to choose appropriate action on this issue. (Source: CNN)
With such a devisive issue on the ballot of three important states for each candidate, it is no wonder they are steering clear of an issue that could damage their campaigns.
In California, voting for Obama could lead voters to also vote for the ban in one swoop at the voting booths.
Arizona collectively voted against this ban in 2006. The California Supreme Court struck down the ban in May this year, legalizing gay marriage across the state. The debate has officially entered Florida for the first time. All states have the ban on the November ballot, along with the presidential candidates.
Obama opposes same-sex marriage but also opposes a constitutional ban on these unions, while supporting civil-unions. McCain and his party platform stand firm in supporting marriages between only a man and a woman. He voted for the Defense of Marriage Act, but against a constitutional amendment - stating that states have the right to choose appropriate action on this issue. (Source: CNN)
With such a devisive issue on the ballot of three important states for each candidate, it is no wonder they are steering clear of an issue that could damage their campaigns.
In California, voting for Obama could lead voters to also vote for the ban in one swoop at the voting booths.
McCain keeps quiet in Arizona
McCain has been relatively quiet with the media in Arizona, his home state. Press have found it nearly impossible to get interviews with one of their long-standing politicians, Cindy McCain or Sarah Palin.
This relationship, or lack thereof, could be for several reasons: Arizona is his home state and an assumed red state and the campaign is focusing on the swing states, it could be a part of the campaign's national trend to deny access to national media outlets, it could be just part of the campaign's grudge against "liberal" media or it could stem from McCain's tense history with the press in his home state.
All are equally plausible, but it has left readers in Arizona and across the country wanting more from the state's press.
This relationship, or lack thereof, could be for several reasons: Arizona is his home state and an assumed red state and the campaign is focusing on the swing states, it could be a part of the campaign's national trend to deny access to national media outlets, it could be just part of the campaign's grudge against "liberal" media or it could stem from McCain's tense history with the press in his home state.
All are equally plausible, but it has left readers in Arizona and across the country wanting more from the state's press.
Wednesday, September 17, 2008
Students GOTV
The Associated Students at the University of Arizona (ASUA) are challenging the conception that students do not vote. Elected officials often ignore targeting the youth specifically, claiming that they have other groups more likely to vote. This negative conception of students has some truth, being a student myself, I witness the apathy daily. However, the older generations simultaneously ignoring and admonishing us only perpetuates the truth in this stereotype.
Students in Arizona are taking a proactive approach with the UAVOTES08 campaign among their peers to close the voting gap, to encourage youth to participate in such a pivotal election.
These students are tapping into the long-standing online community, Myspace, and they are calling it the "Ultimate College Bowl," in hopes of spreading the campaign to campuses across the country.
This year, ASUA has a statewide goal of registering more than 13,000 students and getting 20,000 people to pledge to vote during the general election.
"We want more people involved. We want them to know the issues and we want our students to be engaged in the election process," Tommy Bruce said, president of the ASUA. "It's very feasible that students in Arizona will decide the state's presidential candidate."
Not only is the campaing encouraging voter registration and voting on the general election day, they also provide non-partisan information, will host presidential debate watching parties, and on October 8 the University of Arizona will serve as a polling site for the general election.
Students in Arizona are taking a proactive approach with the UAVOTES08 campaign among their peers to close the voting gap, to encourage youth to participate in such a pivotal election.
These students are tapping into the long-standing online community, Myspace, and they are calling it the "Ultimate College Bowl," in hopes of spreading the campaign to campuses across the country.
This year, ASUA has a statewide goal of registering more than 13,000 students and getting 20,000 people to pledge to vote during the general election.
"We want more people involved. We want them to know the issues and we want our students to be engaged in the election process," Tommy Bruce said, president of the ASUA. "It's very feasible that students in Arizona will decide the state's presidential candidate."
Not only is the campaing encouraging voter registration and voting on the general election day, they also provide non-partisan information, will host presidential debate watching parties, and on October 8 the University of Arizona will serve as a polling site for the general election.
Monday, September 15, 2008
50 Days to General Election
Sunday marked the last 50 days until the general election on November 2. Here is an update on Arizona's past and current political status.
Let's start with Arizona's presidential voting history, pulled from Arizona's Secretary of Sate.
1992 General Election Results:
Bush/Quayle (R) with 572,086 votes. *State winner
Clinton/Gore (D) with 543,050 votes. *National winner
1996 General Election Results:
Dole/Kemp (R) with 622,073 votes.
Clinton/Gore (D) with 653,288 votes. *State and national winner
2000 General Election Results:
Bush/Cheney (R) with 781,652 votes. *State and national winner
Gore/Lieberman (D) with 685,341 votes.
2004 General Election Results:
Bush/Cheney (R) with 1,104, 294 votes. *State and national winner
Kerry/Edwards (D) with 893,524 votes.
Arizona has a mix of Democrats and Republicans holding national and state offices. Democratic governor, Napolitano, was first elected Attorny General in 1998 and won in a landslide for governor in 2000 with 63% of the vote. Napolitano will be up for re-election in 2011.
John McCain, current senator and Republican nominee for president, was first elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1982 and was elected U.S. Senator in 1986. He won his first election with a wide margin, 60-40% and in 1992, after the potentially damaging Keating Five investigation he was re-elected with a 56%-32% split.McCain's fourth full term in the Senate will be up in 2010. McCain has proven to be a solid favorite among Arizona citizens, at least as a senator. An important factor in McCain's potential win in Arizona is his race for president in 2000. McCain swept away the Arizona primary in February that year with 60% of the vote, according to the Federal Election Commission.
Republican John Kyl has held the other senate seat since 1994. In congress he was been a silent but strong force for defense policy. His third full term will be up in 2012.
With no other key national races coming up this November, Kyl has kept his usual quiet demeaner on the national stage while Napolitano has recently started campaigning for Obama. Check out her co-stumping here:
In polls, Arizona is leaning toward McCain. According to a collection of polls on pollster.com, the two candidates are sliding closer: Obama with 40.4% and McCain with 45.8%. In an ASU/Cronkite-Eight poll taken August 16-18, McCain leads with 40%, Obama next with 30% and Undecided with 28%.Key issues concerning Arizona citizens have historically been
This year, issues of the economy (which canvases nearly all states this cycle) and immigration catch Arizonan's attentions in the presidential debate. Arizona also has a large Hispanic population, just over 25%. Capturing the Hispanic vote was not too difficult for Hillary Clinton and Obama has been serious efforts into swaying their support.
With a history of steadfast support for McCain, a large population concerned with two issues conservatives have to their advantage, recent polls and a large population not to happy with Clinton out of the game, this blogger predicts that if the election were held today, Arizona would go to McCain.
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